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Company Information: Estimates / Forecasts

Introductory guide to find international and national company information.

Estimates - definition

to Estimate is "to guess or calculate the cost,size, value, etc. of something"
(Source: the Cambridge Dictionary

I/B/E/S Estimates

I/B/E/S, the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System,

is a database from Thomson Reuters. It is an historical earnings estimate database containing analyst estimates for more than 20 forecast measures - including EPS (earnings per share), revenue, price targets, EBITDA and pre-tax profits - available on both consensus and detailed levels, covering both U.S. and international companies. The database also includes buy-hold-sell recommendations.
Access: via Datastream you have access to I/B/E/S data. You also find I/B/E/S data via WRDS, but for the moment no CBS access.

Databases with estimates / forecasts

I/B/E/S via Datastream

Content:
I/B/E/S provides current and historical consensus data and forecasts from security analysts, for companies worldwide. Forecast items include earnings per share, revenue, cash flow, long-term growth projections, and stock recommendations. Data are available in multiple frequencies as well as covering shorter or longer time frames.
Datastream holds the Historical and Current Summary databases from I/B/E/S. These databases primarily provide earnings forecasting data.

Coverage:
over 60.000+ US Companies (beginning in 1976) and  International Companies (beginning in 1987)


Search IBES data by Excel add-inn > Times Series:

  1. Find the securities / companies by Time Series Request > Find Series 
  2. Find the IBES data by Datatypes > IBES
  3. by ticking on the datatypes in the buttom you a get pop-up description of the chosen datatype

Search IBES data by templates:

Choose Datastream > Templates > Excel Template Library > Estimates


In this example the Earnings Historical Estimates is chosen

Bloomberg

Bloomberg has forecast data for over 17000 companies worldwide. You can use functions like

  • Estimates Consensus Detail (EEB), to displays aggregated broker-contributed projections for a selected equity
  • The function Earnings and Estimates (EE) provides a snapshot of aggregated broker earnings projections, surprise earnings data, and a summary of earnings history.
  • The function Earning Trends (EM) provides comprehensive earnings trends analysis

These functions work well for individual firms. If you have lists of firms, then use the Bloomberg Spreadsheet builder in Excel

 

Eikon

How to find Estimates: 
Type estimates in the Search box on the top left of the application and select the relevant OR open the Estimates tab of a Company page and select an estimates report


Select ready-made Estiamtes templates from the Excel Template Library

Thomson One Banker

Consensus Estimates:
Content: 
A Company Consensus Estimates page displays current consensus and forecast estimates for all measures for the selected company. It provides an insight into how the market views a company's future prospects. 

Coverage: up to 5 years historical data and 2-3 years forward

A company consensus estimates report can contain summary information on the following:

  • Important Notices
  • Valuation
  • Income Statement
  • Recommendations (with a Sell/Buy bar graph)
  • Cash Flow
  • P/E Ratios (and other ratios)
  • Balance Sheet
  • Target Price and Long Term Growth

Search hint:
To retrieve consensus estimates data for a company

  1. Type the company symbol in the Symbol text box / Search box, and click Go.
  2. If needed, click Expand to open the search criteria area.
  3. Select a Fiscal Year.
  4. Select a Currency.
  5. Select Periodicity: Annual or Annual & Interim.
  6. To determine if full or select estimates are displayed, click Mean or Broker Estimates.
  7. If you selected Broker Estimates, select a broker from the adjoining drop-down.
  8. To define how estimates are calculated, click Value, Y/Y%, or Q/Q%.
  9. Click Go.
  10. To export the data to an Excel spreadsheet, select Excel, and then click Open or Save.


Company Earnings Surprise
Content: 
Company Earnings Surprise gives you a quick snapshot of surprise trends for the selected company. It compares the company's reported actual to the mean at the time of reporting to determine whether the company has typically met, exceeded or fallen short of the street's expectations. Buy-side analysts, portfolio managers, investment bankers and investor relations officers will find this tool particularly useful.

Coverage: covers 5 years back in time

The display shows the most recent quarters at the top or the most recent annual for companies with annual coverage only (e.g., international companies). It includes the following data:

  • Period End: Date that the period ends.
  • Report Date: Date the company reported its earnings.
  • Mean: Mathematical average of estimated company earnings.
  • Actual:  Actual company earnings reported.
  • Percent Surprise: The difference, expressed as a percent, between the actual (reported) earnings and the Thomson Reuters Surprise mean EPS estimate for a company.
  • SUE Score:  The SUE (Standardized Unanticipated Earnings) Score, measures the number of standard deviations the actual (reported) earnings differ from the Thomson Reuters Surprise mean estimates for a company.
  • # of Ests: Number of broker earnings estimates for the company.


 

I/B/E/S via WRDS  (CBS has no access)

I/B/E/S, the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, is a database from Thomson Reuters. It is an historical earnings estimate database containing analyst estimates for more than 20 forecast measures - including EPS (earnings per share), revenue, price targets, EBITDA and pre-tax profits - available on both consensus and detailed levels, covering both U.S. and international companies. The database also includes buy-hold-sell recommendations.

I/B/E/S History is a comprehensive expectation database and is ideal for research and back-testing of investment theories and proprietary models.

I/B/E/S Guidance is a related, but separate, product from Thomson Reuters that includes management's predictions about their own company (as opposed to the opinions of 3rd party analysts). It includes information previously available in the Company Issued Guidance (CIG) file in base I/B/E/S and information from the defunct First Call database.

I/B/E/S Global Aggregates is another add-on product that provides earnings forecasts for countries and major international indices.

Coverage: 
I/B/E/S has forecast information on 60,000 companies across 100+ markets.